Transport accessibility and road network load in Poland when faced with flood hazards

The monograph contains the results of research devoted to determining the vulnerability of passenger road transport in Poland by identifying the nature and scale of changes in transport accessibility and changes in the network traffic load in the event of a flood (with different probabilities of occurrence), conducted under the project number 2018/29/B/HS4/01020, financed by the National Science Center in Poland. In the course of the implementation of such formulated main goal of the study, an attempt was made to achieve a group of specific objectives of a cognitive, methodological and application character. The research was conducted mainly on the basis of data on the extent of flood risk areas in Poland and their development, as well as the road network and the development of its neighborhood. The publication may be of interest to researchers dealing with the geography of transport or – more broadly – with socio-economic geography and spatial management. It can also be helpful material for students of study programs that relate to the geography of transport, transport accessibility or spatial mobility in their curriculum. The content of the thesis covers issues that can be used by specialists in crisis management or road infrastructure management in crisis situations related to the occurrence of a flood.

1. Introduction 9 1.1. Research topic and objectives of the study 9 1.2. Spatio-temporal scope of the study 13 1.3. Data sources 16 1.4. Glossary of key terms 18 1.5. Structure of the monograph and schedule of the research procedure 24 2. Non-typical events in road transport 27 2.1. Review of non-typical events 27 2.2. Flooding as a hindrance to transport 33 2.2.1. Selected properties of floods in Poland 33 2.2.2. Historical examples of the impact of floods 37 2.2.3. Types of impact on road transport 40 2.3. Transport during evacuation 44 3. Factors impacting the operation and development of the road network in flood hazard areas 51 3.1. Flood hazard areas and selected characteristics 51 3.2. Selected components of land use and population distribution in flood hazard areas 65 3.2.1. Selected components of land use 66 3.2.2. Population distribution 97 3.3. Legal and administrative frameworks for the management of flood hazard areas 103 3.4. Regulations for the development and management of road infrastructure in flood hazard areas 112 4. The road network in flood hazard areas 123 4.1. Identification of sections of the road network within flood hazard areas 123 4.2. Methodology for verifying the safety of road engineering structures and new developments in road infrastructure 131 4.3. Location of sections of the road network at risk of flooding 137 5. Flood vulnerability indices for passenger road transport 151 5.1. Traffic speed modelling 151 5.1.1. Introduction and review of studies 151 5.1.2. Description of the model 157 5.2. Transport accessibility 168 5.2.1. Isochronous and cumulative accessibility 168 5.2.2. Potential accessibility 173 5.3. Road network load 181 5.3.1. Overview 181 5.3.2. Trip generation 186 5.3.3. Spatial distribution of trips and classification of transport tasks 194 5.3.4. Traffic distribution over the network 200 5.4. How the RoadLoad application works 206 6. Changes in transport accessibility following floods 211 6.1. Short trips 211 6.1.1. The Vistula River basin 211 6.1.2. The Oder River basin 221 6.1.3. The Pregolya River basin 228 6.1.4. Main rivers 229 6.2. Long trips 234 6.2.1. The Vistula River basin 235 6.2.2. The Oder River basin 243 6.2.3. The Pregolya River basin 250 6.2.4. Main rivers 250 7. Changes in road network load following floods 257 7.1. Commuting to work 257 7.1.1. The Vistula River basin 258 7.1.2. The Oder River basin 266 7.1.3. The Pregolya River basin 272 7.1.4. Main rivers 273 7.2. Business trips 278 7.2.1. The Vistula River basin 279 7.2.2. The Oder River basin 287 7.2.3. The Pregolya River basin 293 7.2.4. Main rivers 294 8. Effects of flooding on passenger road transport – a synthesis 301 8.1. Effects on transport accessibility 301 8.2. Effects on road network load 318 9. Conclusions and recommendations 333 9.1. Conclusions and guidelines for further research 333 9.2. Recommendations to reduce vulnerability of road network to flooding 340 Annex 343 Synopsis in Polish 365 Literature and source materials 381 List of figures 409 List of tables 421